【Analysis of market conditions】：
First of all， the short-term upward impulse is weakened， and futures corrections can be done more。 The surge in crude oil has led to a sharp rise in PE after the Spring Festival。 In the background that downstream factories have not yet fully returned to the market and terminal demand has not yet fully recovered， it is not appropriate to continue to chase higher。 In the medium term， the upward trend has not yet ended。 Since the terminal factory has not yet started construction， the replenishment forecast is still difficult to falsify。 Before the terminal enterprise resumes production， PE is expected to remain strong。
Second， the first half of 2022 will be a continuous shock mode。 On the one hand， there is still a lot of pressure on the supply side to add new capacity。 On the other hand， the attractiveness of low prices to the downstream still exists， but the willingness to receive goods at high prices is generally weak。 The absolute result from continued supply-side expansion is only medium-term weakness in the basis。 At the same time， after the prediction of replenishment after the Spring Festival in the later period is proved to be wrong， the market will also have obvious pressure， which is very similar to 2019。
Third， 2022 will be a tangled year for polyolefins。 The support on the cost side will be very obvious， making it difficult to continue to decline。 Capacity on the supply side continues to expand， and there is limited room for expansion on the demand side。 It is certain that profits will continue to be compressed in 2022， and that the basis trend will be weak。 The rhythm of the price will show greater volatility。
（文章來源：國泰君安期貨）
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